Dedicated Finance — Macro Dashboard

Liquidity is currently expanding, a sign of increased money flowing through the financial system. The M2 money supply is at 22,442.1 billion dollars, which translates to a Z-score of +2.75, indicating it is well above its historical norm and suggesting substantial liquidity injections. This is further supported by the Fed's balance sheet, with a Z-score of +0.95, suggesting moderate expansion within recent ranges. However, shifts in the Treasury General Account, which indicates government spending trends, show a significant decline of 8.4% over the past four weeks. With a Z-score of +1.44, it stands near the higher end of its annual range, indicating that while liquidity is generally increasing, the government is using cash reserves, which could temporarily offset some liquidity gains.

Risk appetite appears neutral at this juncture, despite higher volatility signals. The VIX, which measures market volatility, is elevated at a Z-score of +1.87, signaling increased fear in equity markets, particularly as it approaches the critical threshold of 30. In contrast, the MOVE Index remains subdued, with a Z-score of -0.61, indicating low uncertainty in bond markets and highlighting a divergence where equity markets seem more anxious than those in fixed income. With global equities like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing Z-scores above 1.5, albeit with recent declines, this reflects a somewhat cautious sentiment.

On the real economy front, there are signs of strengthening. The ISM Services PMI is solidly above 50 at 56.1, indicating ongoing expansion in the services sector. Housing starts have also surged by 7.2%, indicating confidence in residential construction, with a near-record position at the top of its annual range. However, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is hovering just above 50 at 52.4, reflecting a less robust signal. Meanwhile, commodity prices are also on an upswing, with WTI crude oil gaining an impressive 57% recently, which hints at increased demand or supply constraints. Overall, while the liquidity environment is supportive, the mixed signals in risk appetite and real economic indicators suggest cautious navigation ahead.

Charts of the WeekHighest notability score in each category — top pick this week: Canadian Dollar (Positioning)

Positioning

★ Chart of the Week

Canadian Dollar

Speculators near maximum long positioning (100th percentile)

Score: -4.97Crowded LongBearish Strong

Speculators have reached an extreme level of long positioning in the Canadian Dollar, sitting at the 100th percentile, indicating that nearly everyone in this category is betting on further gains. This level of crowded long positioning often signals a potential reversal, particularly when paired with a strong bearish sentiment reflected in the current market regime. The stark contrast between the overwhelming bullish bets and the bearish market environment raises concerns about a possible correction, suggesting that this could be a critical moment for the stability of the Canadian Dollar.

Liquidity

M2 Money Supply

At a multi-year statistical extreme (Z-score +2.7)

Z: +2.754w: +0.3%52w: 100%

The M2 Money Supply is at a multi-year high, with its Z-score of +2.7 indicating it is significantly above historical norms, reflecting a tightening liquidity environment. This level places it beyond typical trading ranges, suggesting that the sheer volume of money in circulation is creating pressure that could impact inflation and economic growth. With the M2 reaching the highest point of its annual range, the implications for market dynamics are profound, signaling a potential shift in monetary conditions that may influence investor sentiment and spending behavior.

Risk Appetite

VIX

Largest 4-week move in Risk Appetite (+44.8%)

Z: +1.874w: +44.8%52w: 41%

Recent activity in the VIX signals an increase in market anxiety, with a notable 44.8% surge over the past four weeks. This brings its Z-score to 1.9, indicating a level of volatility that is significantly elevated compared to historical norms, suggesting investors are increasingly unsettled. Currently positioned at 41.2% of its annual range, the VIX is reflecting a heightened perception of risk in the markets, which could be driven by a variety of economic uncertainty factors or geopolitical tensions.

Real Economy

WTI Crude Oil

Largest 4-week move in Real Economy (+57.0%)

Z: +1.634w: +57.0%52w: 100%

A notable surge in WTI Crude Oil prices, rising over 57% in just four weeks, signals significant movement within the energy sector, contributing to heightened attention on inflationary pressures across the broader economy. With prices now at the top of their 52-week range, this extreme position reflects strong demand and potential supply constraints, which could impact consumer prices and economic growth. The Z-score of 1.63 indicates that oil prices are notably elevated, suggesting that this rapid uptrend may have far-reaching implications for inflation dynamics and overall economic stability.

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Liquidity Summary — 2026-03-14

The M2 money supply is at an all-time high and significantly above its recent average, illustrating a moment of excessive liquidity in the market. Meanwhile, the Fed's balance sheet reflects a moderately elevated level, indicating a stable environment for monetary support. A notable decline in the Treasury General Account hints at increased government spending, contributing to added liquidity. Conversely, the reverse repo rate signals substantial cash entrenchment at the Fed, positioning it well below normal levels. Credit spreads for high yield and investment grade bonds are both moderate, reflecting cautious sentiment in credit markets, but the rising trend in the reverse repo market alongside high liquidity raises questions about whether this environment is sustainable. The most pressing concern is the extreme position of the M2 supply, which may signal potential imbalances in the future.

Regime History

52 weeks agoNow

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Risk Appetite Summary — 2026-03-14

Risk appetite shows signs of strain, as most major equity indices remain significantly above their recent averages, with Z-scores for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and MSCI World all over +1.5, indicating notable elevation in pricing. However, these indices have experienced declines over the past month, with the MSCI Emerging Markets and Nikkei both registering high Z-scores above +2.0 but also notable recent losses that suggest increased caution among investors. The VIX is at +1.87, reflecting heightened fear in equity markets, while the MOVE Index is subdued at -0.61, pointing to a disconnect in expectations of volatility between stocks and bonds. This divergence indicates growing uncertainty within equity markets, underscoring the risk of further declines if investor sentiment continues to waver.

Regime History

52 weeks agoNow

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Real Economy Summary — 2026-03-14

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is slightly below average at 52.4, indicating that factory activity is expanding but at a modest pace, and it's near the upper end of its annual range, reflecting sustained resilience. In contrast, ISM Services PMI is notably strong at 56.1, improving over the past month and signaling robust growth in the services sector. Housing starts are elevated at 1,487,000, near their peak for the year, suggesting ongoing confidence in the construction market. WTI crude oil has surged to $98.71, marking an extreme level with significant upward momentum, while copper, despite its strong position in the 80th percentile, shows signs of slight contraction. The remarkable divergence between the soaring oil prices and steady copper could indicate mixed signals regarding industrial demand. Overall, robust service sector growth and elevated oil prices are key indicators of current economic vitality.

Regime History

52 weeks agoNow

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Positioning Summary — 2026-03-14

Speculators are heavily concentrated in several crowded long positions, particularly in Bitcoin and Ethereum, where they occupy more than 90% of the past five years’ positioning. Such high participation signals a potential risk for sharp reversals if momentum shifts. A similar situation is seen in Brent crude oil and natural gas, where speculators are also positioned at extreme levels, indicating a crowded long trade that could experience significant unwinding pressure. Commercials, generally regarded as the "smart money," are aligned with speculators in most cases but reveal stark contrasts in specific assets. In the energy sector, both commercials and speculators show strong long positioning in crude oil, but the commercial base remains substantial. The crowded positioning in Bitcoin and Ethereum sees speculators markedly long while commercials hold short positions — indicating a stronger potential for a price pullback if the trend reverses. Overall, positioning is mixed; while many assets reflect speculative bullishness, the extremes in Bitcoin and Ethereum, combined with smart money hedging against those longs, signify potential vulnerabilities in these markets. This combination of crowded trades and opposing commercial positions may set the stage for volatile adjustments.

Comm % = Commercials percentile rank — high is bullish | Large % = Large Spec percentile rank — high is crowded / bearish

📈Equity

3 markets▾

Asset Regime Score Comm % Large % 4w Price

S&P 500

Bullish Moderate

+2.28

Comm

Large

-2.3%

Nasdaq 100

Neutral

-1.89

Comm

Large

-0.7%

Nikkei 225

Neutral

+1.48

Comm

Large

-5.9%

₿Crypto

click to expand2 markets▸

🛢️Energy

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🔶Metals

click to expand5 markets▸

📊Rates

click to expand2 markets▸

💱FX

click to expand7 markets▸

🌾Agriculture & Livestock

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Asset Drill-Down

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